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MJO phase 2 · PDO negative · seasonal odds, not guarantees
Thu, Oct 22, 12 AM → Fri 12 AM · 24 h
Each model’s precip that falls above its snow level counts as snow, at a ratio set by the warmest temperature between the ground and 500 hPa. NAM and NBM have no snow level or column, so they use their own snowfall at 7:1 and are marked “raw”. Raw 7:1 shows every model’s own snowfall.
→Holding steady: blend within 0.4″ over the last 8 cycles (6 of 10 models agree).
Latest blend 1.1 in · Kuchera ratio · 10 models
Time-based lookback is fairer across models: 10 HRRR runs span ~1 day, 10 GFS runs span 2.5 days.
| Model | Latest | vs prev | vs first |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFS7 runs · 12Z | 0.8 | +0.3 | -0.6 |
| HRRR2 runs · 18Z | 2.8 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| ECMWF IFS 9km7 runs · 12Z | 0.7 | -0.1 | +0.3 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25°7 runs · 12Z | 0.7 | -0.1 | +0.2 |
| ECMWF AIFS7 runs · 12Z | 1.5 | 0 | -1.1 |
| ICON7 runs · 12Z | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| GEM Global3 runs · 12Z | 2.6 | +0.3 | 0 |
| UKMO 10km5 runs · 12Z | 0.4 | +0.3 | -1.5 |
| NAM 3km4 runs · 18Z · raw | 1.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| NBM15 runs · 18Z · raw | 1.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
A run counts only if it covers the whole window, so short-range models (HRRR, NAM, HRDPS) appear only for windows within ~2 days. The blend uses each model’s latest run at or before every 00/06/12/18Z cycle, and is hidden where fewer than 3 models contribute.