Mammoth Mountain

Jackson Hole

Palisades Tahoe

Big Bear Mountain

Thermoweather

by thermomedium · concept skin, not affiliated with Mammoth Mountain · concept skin, not affiliated with Jackson Hole · concept skin, not affiliated with Palisades Tahoe · concept skin, not affiliated with Big Bear Mountain

Your mountain

Mammoth Mountain

3.6″

next 3 days · up top

7/7

models agree

−0.4″

vs yesterday’s runs

Lowest snow level: about 7,900 ft

Full forecast ›Trends ›

Your mountain

Jackson Hole

2.4″

next 3 days · up top

6/7

models agree

Steady

vs yesterday’s runs

Lowest snow level: about 6,600 ft

Full forecast ›Trends ›

Your mountain

Palisades Tahoe

2.9″

next 3 days · up top

6/7

models agree

Steady

vs yesterday’s runs

Lowest snow level: about 7,300 ft

Full forecast ›Trends ›

Your mountain

Big Bear Mountain

1.0″

next 3 days · up top

5/7

models agree

Steady

vs yesterday’s runs

Lowest snow level: about 7,300 ft

Full forecast ›Trends ›

DemoMake your call

Think the models are low? Call your own storm total, play the over/under for points, and share your forecast. Try it ›

✨ Home: EncinitasAI forecast · 2 h agoShowers today and a wetter Thursday with about 0.47 in likely, then drying out and warming into the upper 70s by Monday. ›

Encinitas · next 48 h

Full forecast ›

About 0.41″ of rain in the blend · 10 models

Next 6 hChecking radar…

Wed 21

76° 65°

0.21″ 9/10

gust 20 mph

Thu 22

69° 62°

0.47″ 9/9

gust 16 mph

Fri 23

70° 60°

0.03″ 6/7

gust 12 mph

What’s coming

Next 3 days

Snowiest next 3 days: Mammoth Summit 5.8″ up top, Wed–Thu (7/7 models), Kirkwood 4.5″ up top, Wed–Thu (7/7 models), Big Sky 4.3″ up top, Fri (7/7 models).
Trending snowier: Kirkwood, up 0.8″ vs yesterday's runs.
Trending less snowy: Mammoth Summit, down 1.9″ vs yesterday's runs.
Lowest snow level ahead: about 3,500 ft near Crystal Mountain.

Next 72 h snow · blend median

Summit where the resort has one. Arrows: change vs the runs ~24 h earlier. Odds, not guarantees.

Pattern outlook · next few weeks

Pattern ›

An active MJO could boost West Coast storminess in the coming weeks. El Niño's wet-south lean is the season story, with a cool PDO adding doubt.

Next 2 weeks:: The MJO is active in phase 2, the stretch that tends to boost West Coast precipitation 1–5 weeks later. The PNA leans negative in days 7–14: cooler with lower snow levels (low confidence).
Season:: Strong El Niño, very strong expected: winter odds tilt wet for Southern California, the southern Sierra and southern Colorado, and warmer/drier for the interior Northwest and northern Rockies; Tahoe, Utah and northern Colorado are near coin flips. The strongly negative PDO makes those leans less reliable, especially in the Southwest; it lowers confidence rather than flipping them. Strong events are few and have played out differently, so treat composites as rough.
Stratosphere:: The QBO is westerly, which favors a stronger polar vortex while El Niño favors a weaker one, so no clear lean on midwinter vortex disruptions. Either way, weak/indirect for western snow.

Overall confidence: low–moderate. Rule-based from the signals below. Odds, not guarantees.

The signals

MJOActive · phase 2↗
It strengthened (amplitude 1.1 → 1.4 over two weeks) and is holding in phase 2. Links to the West are low–moderate confidence even when it's active. Its effects arrive 1–5 weeks later, so they land in early winter, when its links to West Coast storms are strongest.· CPC update Mon Oct 26
PNANegative ahead↘
Now −0.2; GEFS leans negative in days 7–14 (−0.8): cooler West with lower snow levels. Ensemble spread is wide, so low confidence.
QBOWesterly, building↗
30 hPa +12.9 m/s (Sep). 50 hPa flipped westerly in Sep (−6.9 Jul → +4.2 m/s Sep), so the new phase has reached the lower stratosphere. A westerly QBO favors a stronger polar vortex while El Niño favors a weaker one, so no clear vortex lean this winter. Weak/indirect for the West.· Next index Nov 5
PDOStrongly negative, easing↗
−1.55 in Sep (−2.16 in Jul). A negative PDO tends to make El Niño's effects weaker and noisier: it lowers confidence in the El Niño lean, it doesn't flip it.· Next index Nov 5
ENSOStrong El Niño, very strong expected
Season · AIA very strong El Niño tilts the season toward wetter odds in California and the southern mountains and drier, warmer odds in the northern Rockies, while CPC's next two weeks favor above-normal precipitation across the Interior West.

Sparklines: MJO strength (2 wk), QBO 30 hPa and PDO (6 mo), PNA forecast (dashed, GEFS). Odds, not guarantees.

My resorts · next 72 h

All spots ›

West · next 3 days · blend

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