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MJO phase 2 · PDO negative · seasonal odds, not guarantees
Thu, Oct 22, 12 AM → Fri 12 AM · 24 h
Each model’s precip that falls above its snow level counts as snow, at a ratio set by the warmest temperature between the ground and 500 hPa. NAM and NBM have no snow level or column, so they use their own snowfall at 7:1 and are marked “raw”. Raw 7:1 shows every model’s own snowfall.
→Holding steady: blend within 0.0″ over the last 8 cycles (11 of 11 models agree).
Latest blend 0.0 in · Kuchera ratio · 11 models
Time-based lookback is fairer across models: 10 HRRR runs span ~1 day, 10 GFS runs span 2.5 days.
| Model | Latest | vs prev | vs first |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFS7 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| HRRR2 runs · 18Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| ECMWF IFS 9km7 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25°7 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| ECMWF AIFS7 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| ICON8 runs · 18Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| GEM Global3 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKMO 10km5 runs · 12Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| NAM 3km4 runs · 18Z · raw | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| NBM16 runs · 21Z · raw | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| HRDPS2 runs · 18Z | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
A run counts only if it covers the whole window, so short-range models (HRRR, NAM, HRDPS) appear only for windows within ~2 days. The blend uses each model’s latest run at or before every 00/06/12/18Z cycle, and is hidden where fewer than 3 models contribute.